How Interest Rates are Like Gas Prices

Lisa Manwaring • March 19, 2019

Have you ever noticed that just like gas prices, interest rates seem to go up and down for no reason at all?

How come it feels like right before you are ready to buy a property, rumours of interest rate changes will start to flood the media? Or why do gas prices always seem to go up right before the long weekend (when you are heading out of town)? You could spend a lifetime trying to figure these things out. However, knowing why these things happen isn't as important as knowing what to do when they happen!

How to Protect Yourself from Rising Interest Rates!

Allow me to share a few things you can do to protect yourself from rising interest rates if you are looking to purchase a property in the near future.

Be Prepared. Know Your Mortgage Options

Unlike most gas stations where gas is gas regardless of where you fill up, not all mortgage products are created equal. Just because a mortgage product has a lower sticker price attached, doesn't mean it's necessarily a better deal. You really have to understand the fine print in order to make the best choice for you.

As your unbiased mortgage professional, I can help you understand all the products available to you and how the fine print will impact the overall cost of the mortgage. I can help you understand the difference between fixed and variable rates, the impact of shorter vs longer terms and amortizations, pre-payment privileges, and potential mortgage penalties.

By understanding your options, you can make a decision that is based on your financial situation and goals rather than based on fluctuating interest rates. Protect yourself emotionally by not placing such a high value on an arbitrary "sticker price" (rate) instead focus on finding the best mortgage product available for you at the time you are purchasing.

Be Prepared. Get a Pre-approval With a Rate Hold

If you are shopping for a property, not only should you be pre-approved for the mortgage, but you should have a rate hold in place as well.

A pre-approval is a lender's written commitment to offer you a mortgage assuming the details in the application are proven accurate. A pre-approval is not a guarantee that you will get the mortgage, just that they have looked at the initial application and believe you are a enough of a qualified applicant to proceed once you have found a property to purchase.

The pre-approval process consists of the following:

  • A mortgage application - to assess your financial situation (employment, credit and downpayment).
  • Collection of documents - to support the application.
  • Submission of the application - for lender review.
  • A response from the lender - indicating they will consider lending to you based on a set purchase price limit, specific product, and acceptable property.
  • A rate hold - the time you have to close the mortgage while they will guarantee it at a certain rate.

So as part of the pre-approval, it's really the rate hold that protects you against rising interest rates. A rate hold is a lender's commitment to hold a certain rate on a certain product for a certain time frame. For example, if you like the 5 year fixed term (product), and a lender is offering 2.64% (rate) a rate hold can be secured that will guarantee the rate anywhere from 30-120 days (time frame), this is the time you have to take possession of the property.

Some lenders offer more aggressive rates (lower rates) but limit the hold to a shorter time period, usually 30-60 days. This is why some banks, lenders, or brokers advertise "Rate Specials". However it should be noted that not all rate specials come with a rate hold. Some rates are only available for applications where an offer to purchase has been accepted on a property.

If your rate hold expires, it is easy enough to get another one in place with an updated application. Also, if rates drop while you have a hold in place, and you find a property to purchase, typically we are able to drop the rate for you at closing. It's as easy as that!

Now... if you made it this far and you're looking for advice on how to get the best price at the pump, unfortunately I can't help you out there, that is a mystery to everyone! But if you want to know more about securing a pre-approval and a rate hold, please contact me anytime.

LISA MANWARING

MORTGAGE EXPERT

LET'S TALK

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Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Oct 29th, 2025

By Lisa Manwaring • October 29, 2025
Bank of Canada lowers policy rate to 2¼%. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario October 29, 2025 The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. With the effects of US trade actions on economic growth and inflation somewhat clearer, the Bank has returned to its usual practice of providing a projection for the global and Canadian economies in this Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Because US trade policy remains unpredictable and uncertainty is still higher than normal, this projection is subject to a wider-than-usual range of risks. While the global economy has been resilient to the historic rise in US tariffs, the impact is becoming more evident. Trade relationships are being reconfigured and ongoing trade tensions are dampening investment in many countries. In the MPR projection, the global economy slows from about 3¼% in 2025 to about 3% in 2026 and 2027. In the United States, economic activity has been strong, supported by the boom in AI investment. At the same time, employment growth has slowed and tariffs have started to push up consumer prices. Growth in the euro area is decelerating due to weaker exports and slowing domestic demand. In China, lower exports to the United States have been offset by higher exports to other countries, but business investment has weakened. Global financial conditions have eased further since July and oil prices have been fairly stable. The Canadian dollar has depreciated slightly against the US dollar. Canada’s economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, reflecting a drop in exports and weak business investment amid heightened uncertainty. Meanwhile, household spending grew at a healthy pace. US trade actions and related uncertainty are having severe effects on targeted sectors including autos, steel, aluminum, and lumber. As a result, GDP growth is expected to be weak in the second half of the year. Growth will get some support from rising consumer and government spending and residential investment, and then pick up gradually as exports and business investment begin to recover. Canada’s labour market remains soft. Employment gains in September followed two months of sizeable losses. Job losses continue to build in trade-sensitive sectors and hiring has been weak across the economy. The unemployment rate remained at 7.1% in September and wage growth has slowed. Slower population growth means fewer new jobs are needed to keep the employment rate steady. The Bank projects GDP will grow by 1.2% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027. On a quarterly basis, growth strengthens in 2026 after a weak second half of this year. Excess capacity in the economy is expected to persist and be taken up gradually. CPI inflation was 2.4% in September, slightly higher than the Bank had anticipated. Inflation excluding taxes was 2.9%. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been sticky around 3%. Expanding the range of indicators to include alternative measures of core inflation and the distribution of price changes among CPI components suggests underlying inflation remains around 2½%. The Bank expects inflationary pressures to ease in the months ahead and CPI inflation to remain near 2% over the projection horizon. With ongoing weakness in the economy and inflation expected to remain close to the 2% target, Governing Council decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points. If inflation and economic activity evolve broadly in line with the October projection, Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. Governing Council will be assessing incoming data carefully relative to the Bank’s forecast. The Canadian economy faces a difficult transition. The structural damage caused by the trade conflict reduces the capacity of the economy and adds costs. This limits the role that monetary policy can play to boost demand while maintaining low inflation. The Bank is focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. Information note The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 10, 2025. The Bank’s next MPR will be released on January 28, 2026. Read the October 29th, 2025 Monetary Report

What Are GDS/TDS Ratios Anyways?

By Lisa Manwaring • October 22, 2025
One of the major qualifiers lenders look at when considering your application for mortgage financing is your debt service ratios. Now, before we get started, if you prefer to have someone walk through these calculations with you, assess your financial situation, and let you know exactly where you stand, let’s connect. There is no use in dusting off the calculator and running the numbers yourself when we can do it for you! However, if you’re someone who likes to know the nitty-gritty of how things work instead of simply accepting that's just the way it is, this article is for you. But be warned, there are a lot of mortgage words and some math ahead; with that out of the way, let’s get started! “Debt servicing” is the measure of your ability to meet all of your financial obligations. There are two ratios that lenders examine to determine whether you can debt service a mortgage. The first is called the “gross debt service” ratio, or GDS, which is the percentage of your monthly household income that covers your housing costs. The second is called the “total debt service” ratio, or TDS, which is the percentage of your monthly household income covering your housing costs and all your other debts. GDS is your income compared to the cost of financing the mortgage, including your proposed mortgage payments (principal and interest), property taxes, and heat (PITH), plus a percentage of your condo fees (if applicable). Here’s how to calculate your GDS. Principal + Interest + Taxes + Heat / Gross Annual Income Your TDS is your income compared to your GDS plus the payments made to service any existing debts. Debts include car loans, line of credit, credit card payments, support payments, student loans, and anywhere else you’re contractually obligated to make payments. Here’s how to calculate your TDS. Principal + Interest + Taxes + Heat + Other Debts / Gross Annual Income With the calculations for those ratios in place, the next step is to understand that each lender has guidelines that outline a maximum GDS/TDS. Exceeding these guidelines will result in your mortgage application being declined, so the lower your GDS/TDS, the better. If you don’t have any outstanding debts, your GDS and TDS will be the same number. This is a good thing! The maximum ratios vary for conventional mortgage financing based on the lender and mortgage product being offered. However, if your mortgage is high ratio and mortgage default insurance is required, the maximum GDS is 39% with a maximum TDS of 44%. So how does this play out in real life? Well, let’s say you’re currently looking to purchase a property with a payment of $1700/mth (PITH), and your total annual household income is $90,000 ($7500/mth). The calculations would be $1700 divided by $7500, which equals 0.227, giving you a gross debt service ratio of 22.7%. A point of clarity here. When calculating the principal and interest portion of the payment, the Government of Canada has instituted a stress test. It requires you to qualify using the government's qualifying rate (which is higher), not the actual contract rate. This is true for both fixed and variable rate mortgages. Now let’s continue with the scenario. Let’s say that in addition to the payments required to service the property, you have a car payment of $300/mth, child support payments of $500/mth, and between your credit cards and line of credit, you’re responsible for another $700/mth. In total, you pay $1500/mth. So when you add in the $1700/mth PITH, you arrive at a total of $3200/mth for all of your financial obligations. $3200 divided by $7500 equals 0.427, giving you a total debt service ratio of 42.7%. Here’s where it gets interesting. Based on your GDS alone, you can easily afford the property. But when you factor in all your other expenses, the TDS exceeds the allowable limit of 42% (for an insured mortgage anyway). So why does this matter? Well, as it stands, you wouldn’t qualify for the mortgage, even though you are likely paying more than $1700/mth in rent. So then, to qualify, it might be as simple as shuffling some of your debt to lower payments. Or maybe you have 10% of the purchase price saved for a downpayment, changing the mortgage structure to 5% down and using the additional 5% to pay out a portion of your debt might be the difference you need to bring it all together. Here’s the thing, as your actual financial situation is most likely different than the one above, working with an independent mortgage professional is the best way to give yourself options. Don’t do this alone. Your best plan is to seek and rely on the advice provided by an experienced independent mortgage professional. While you might secure a handful of mortgages over your lifetime, we do this every day with people just like you. It’s never too early to start the conversation about mortgage qualification. Going over your application and assessing your debt service ratios in detail beforehand gives you the time needed to make the financial moves necessary to put yourself in the best financial position. So if you find yourself questioning what you can afford or if you want to discuss your GDS/TDS ratios to understand the mortgage process a little better, please get in touch. It would be a pleasure to work with you, we can get a preapproval started right away.