Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Oct 26th, 2022

Lisa Manwaring • October 26, 2022

Bank of Canada increases policy interest rate by 50 basis points, continues quantitative tightening.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

October 26, 2022

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 3¾%, with the Bank Rate at 4% and the deposit rate at 3¾%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

Inflation around the world remains high and broadly based. This reflects the strength of the global recovery from the pandemic, a series of global supply disruptions, and elevated commodity prices, particularly for energy, which have been pushed up by Russia’s attack on Ukraine. The strength of the US dollar is adding to inflationary pressures in many countries. Tighter monetary policies aimed at controlling inflation are weighing on economic activity around the world. As economies slow and supply disruptions ease, global inflation is expected to come down.

In the United States, labour markets remain very tight even as restrictive financial conditions are slowing economic activity. The Bank projects no growth in the US economy through most of next year. In the euro area, the economy is forecast to contract in the quarters ahead, largely due to acute energy shortages. China’s economy appears to have picked up after the recent round of pandemic lockdowns, although ongoing challenges related to its property market will continue to weigh on growth. Overall, the Bank projects that global growth will slow from 3% in 2022 to about 1½% in 2023, and then pick back up to roughly 2½% in 2024. This is a slower pace of growth than was projected in the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR).

In Canada, the economy continues to operate in excess demand and labour markets remain tight. The demand for goods and services is still running ahead of the economy’s ability to supply them, putting upward pressure on domestic inflation. Businesses continue to report widespread labour shortages and, with the full reopening of the economy, strong demand has led to a sharp rise in the price of services.

The effects of recent policy rate increases by the Bank are becoming evident in interest-sensitive areas of the economy: housing activity has retreated sharply, and spending by households and businesses is softening. Also, the slowdown in international demand is beginning to weigh on exports. Economic growth is expected to stall through the end of this year and the first half of next year as the effects of higher interest rates spread through the economy. The Bank projects GDP growth will slow from 3¼% this year to just under 1% next year and 2% in 2024.

In the last three months, CPI inflation has declined from 8.1% to 6.9%, primarily due to a fall in gasoline prices. However, price pressures remain broadly based, with two-thirds of CPI components increasing more than 5% over the past year. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation are not yet showing meaningful evidence that underlying price pressures are easing. Near-term inflation expectations remain high, increasing the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched.

The Bank expects CPI inflation to ease as higher interest rates help rebalance demand and supply, price pressures from global supply disruptions fade, and the past effects of higher commodity prices dissipate. CPI inflation is projected to move down to about 3% by the end of 2023, and then return to the 2% target by the end of 2024.

Given elevated inflation and inflation expectations, as well as ongoing demand pressures in the economy, the Governing Council expects that the policy interest rate will need to rise further. Future rate increases will be influenced by our assessments of how tighter monetary policy is working to slow demand, how supply challenges are resolving, and how inflation and inflation expectations are responding. Quantitative tightening is complementing increases in the policy rate. We are resolute in our commitment to restore price stability for Canadians and will continue to take action as required to achieve the 2% inflation target.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 7, 2022. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR on January 25, 2023.

View the October 2022 Monetary Policy Report

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Locking in a Variable Rate Mortgage

By Lisa Manwaring • December 25, 2024

If you have a variable rate mortgage and recent economic news has you thinking about locking into a fixed rate, here’s what you can expect will happen. You can expect to pay a higher interest rate over the remainder of your term, while you could end up paying a significantly higher mortgage penalty should you need to break your mortgage before the end of your term. Now, each lender has a slightly different way that they handle the process of switching from a variable rate to a fixed rate. Still, it’s safe to say that regardless of which lender you’re with, you’ll end up paying more money in interest and potentially way more money down the line in mortgage penalties should you have to break your mortgage. Interest rates on fixed rate mortgages Fixed rate mortgages come with a higher interest rate than variable rate mortgages. If you’re a variable rate mortgage holder, this is one of the reasons you went variable in the first place; to secure the lower rate. The perception is that fixed rates are somewhat “safe” while variable rates are “uncertain.” And while it’s true that because the variable rate is tied to prime, it can increase (or decrease) within your term, there are controls in place to ensure that rates don’t take a roller coaster ride. The Bank of Canada has eight prescheduled rate announcements per year, where they rarely move more than 0.25% per announcement, making it impossible for your variable rate to double overnight. Penalties on fixed rate mortgages Each lender has a different way of calculating the cost to break a mortgage. However, generally speaking, breaking a variable rate mortgage will cost roughly three months of interest or approximately 0.5% of the total mortgage balance. While breaking a fixed rate mortgage could cost upwards of 4% of the total mortgage balance should you need to break it early and you’re required to pay an interest rate differential penalty. For example, on a $500k mortgage balance, the cost to break your variable rate would be roughly $2500, while the cost to break your fixed rate mortgage could be as high as $20,000, eight times more depending on the lender and how they calculate their interest rate differential penalty. The flexibility of a variable rate mortgage vs the cost of breaking a fixed rate mortgage is likely another reason you went with a variable rate in the first place. Breaking your mortgage contract Did you know that almost 60% of Canadians will break their current mortgage at an average of 38 months? And while you might have the best intention of staying with your existing mortgage for the remainder of your term, sometimes life happens, you need to make a change. Here’s is a list of potential reasons you might need to break your mortgage before the end of the term. Certainly worth reviewing before committing to a fixed rate mortgage. Sale of your property because of a job relocation. Purchase of a new home. Access equity from your home. Refinance your home to pay off consumer debt. Refinance your home to fund a new business. Because you got married, you combine assets and want to live together in a new property. Because you got divorced, you need to split up your assets and access the equity in your property Because you or someone close to you got sick Because you lost your job or because you got a new one You want to remove someone from the title. You want to pay off your mortgage before the maturity date. Essentially, locking your variable rate mortgage into a fixed rate is choosing to voluntarily pay more interest to the lender while giving up some of the flexibility should you need to break your mortgage. If you’d like to discuss this in greater detail, please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to walk you through all your mortgage options and provide you with professional mortgage advice.

Credit and Mortgage Financing

By Lisa Manwaring • December 18, 2024

Credit. The ability of a customer to obtain goods or services before payment, based on the trust that you will make payments in the future. When you borrow money to buy a property, you’ll be required to prove that you have a good history of managing your credit. That is, making good on all your payments. But what exactly is a “good history of managing credit”? What are lenders looking at when they assess your credit report? If you’re new to managing your credit, an easy way to remember the minimum credit requirements for mortgage financing is the 2/2/2 rule. Two active trade lines established over a minimum period of two years, with a minimum limit of two thousand dollars, is what lenders are looking for. A trade line could be a credit card, an instalment loan, a car loan, or a line of credit; basically, anytime a lender extends credit to you. Your repayment history is kept on your credit report and generates a credit score. For a tradeline to be considered active, you must have used it for at least one month and then once every three months. To build a good credit history, both of your tradelines need to be used for at least two years. This history gives the lender confidence that you’ve established good credit habits over a decent length of time. Two thousand dollars is the bare minimum limit required on your trade lines. So if you have a credit card with a $1000 limit and a line of credit with a $2500 limit, you would be okay as your limit would be $3500. If you’re managing your credit well, chances are you will be offered a limit increase. It’s a good idea to take it. Mortgage Lenders want to know that you can handle borrowing money. Now, don’t confuse the limit with the balance. You don’t have to carry a balance on your trade lines for them to be considered active. To build credit, it’s best to use your tradelines but pay them off in full every month in the case of credit cards and make all your loan payments on time. A great way to use your credit is to pay your bills via direct withdrawal from your credit card, then set up a regular transfer from your bank account to pay off the credit card in full every month. Automation becomes your best friend. Just make sure you keep on top of your banking to ensure everything works as it should. Now, you might be thinking, what about my credit score, isn’t that important when talking about building a credit profile to secure a mortgage? Well, your credit score is important, but if you have two tradelines, reporting for two years, with a minimum limit of two thousand dollars, without missing any payments, your credit score will take care of itself, and you should have no worries. With that said, it never hurts to take a look at your credit every once and a while to ensure no errors are reported on your credit bureau. So, if you’re thinking about buying a property in the next couple of years and want to make sure that you have good enough credit to qualify, let’s talk. Connect anytime; it would be a pleasure to work with you and help you to understand better how your credit impacts mortgage qualification.