Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Dec 5th, 2018

Lisa Manwaring • December 5, 2018

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ per cent.

The global economic expansion is moderating largely as expected, but signs are emerging that trade conflicts are weighing more heavily on global demand. Recent encouraging developments at the G20 meetings are a reminder that there are upside as well as downside risks around trade policy. Growth in major advanced economies has slowed, although activity in the United States remains above potential.

Oil prices have fallen sharply since the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR), reflecting a combination of geopolitical developments, uncertainty about global growth prospects, and expansion of U.S. shale oil production. Benchmarks for western Canadian oil – both heavy and, more recently, light – have been pulled down even further by transportation constraints and a buildup of inventories. In light of these developments and associated cutbacks in production, activity in Canada’s energy sector will likely be materially weaker than expected.

The Canadian economy as a whole grew in line with the Bank’s projection in the third quarter, although data suggest less momentum going into the fourth quarter. Business investment fell in the third quarter, in large part due to heightened trade uncertainty during the summer. Business investment outside the energy sector is expected to strengthen with the signing of the USMCA, new federal government tax measures, and ongoing capacity constraints. Along with strong foreign demand, this increase in productive capacity should support continued growth in exports.

Household credit and regional housing markets appear to be stabilizing following a significant slowdown in recent quarters. The Bank continues to monitor the impact on both builders and buyers of tighter mortgage rules, regional housing policy changes, and higher interest rates.

Inflation has been evolving as expected and the Bank’s core measures are all tracking 2 per cent, consistent with an economy that has been operating close to its capacity. CPI inflation, at 2.4 per cent in October, is just above target but is expected to ease in coming months by more than the Bank had previously forecast, due to lower gasoline prices. Downward historical revisions by Statistics Canada to GDP, together with recent macroeconomic developments, indicate there may be additional room for non-inflationary growth. The Bank will reassess all of these factors in its new projection for the January MPR.

Weighing all of these developments, Governing Council continues to judge that the policy interest rate will need to rise into a neutral range to achieve the inflation target. The appropriate pace of rate increases will depend on a number of factors. These include the effect of higher interest rates on consumption and housing, and global trade policy developments. The persistence of the oil price shock, the evolution of business investment, and the Bank’s assessment of the economy’s capacity will also factor importantly into our decisions about the future stance of monetary policy.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 9, 2019. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time.

Here are the announcement dates set for 2019.

  • January 9th 2019*
  • March 6th 2019
  • April 24th 2019*
  • May 29th 2019
  • July 10th 2019*
  • September 4th 2019
  • October 30th 2019*
  • December 4th 2019

* Monetary Policy Report published

LISA MANWARING

MORTGAGE EXPERT

LET'S TALK

RECENT POSTS

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jan 28th, 2026

By Lisa Manwaring • January 28, 2026
Bank of Canada maintains policy rate at 2¼%. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario January 28, 2026 The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The outlook for the global and Canadian economies is little changed relative to the projection in the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). However, the outlook is vulnerable to unpredictable US trade policies and geopolitical risks. Economic growth in the United States continues to outpace expectations and is projected to remain solid, driven by AI-related investment and consumer spending. Tariffs are pushing up US inflation, although their effect is expected to fade gradually later this year. In the euro area, growth has been supported by activity in service sectors and will get additional support from fiscal policy. China’s GDP growth is expected to slow gradually, as weakening domestic demand offsets strength in exports. Overall, the Bank expects global growth to average about 3% over the projection horizon. Global financial conditions have remained accommodative overall. Recent weakness in the US dollar has pushed the Canadian dollar above 72 cents, roughly where it had been since the October MPR. Oil prices have been fluctuating in response to geopolitical events and, going forward, are assumed to be slightly below the levels in the October report. US trade restrictions and uncertainty continue to disrupt growth in Canada. After a strong third quarter, GDP growth in the fourth quarter likely stalled. Exports continue to be buffeted by US tariffs, while domestic demand appears to be picking up. Employment has risen in recent months. Still, the unemployment rate remains elevated at 6.8% and relatively few businesses say they plan to hire more workers. Economic growth is projected to be modest in the near term as population growth slows and Canada adjusts to US protectionism. In the projection, consumer spending holds up and business investment strengthens gradually, with fiscal policy providing some support. The Bank projects growth of 1.1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027, broadly in line with the October projection. A key source of uncertainty is the upcoming review of the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement. CPI inflation picked up in December to 2.4%, boosted by base-year effects linked to last winter’s GST/HST holiday. Excluding the effect of changes in taxes, inflation has been slowing since September. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have eased from 3% in October to around 2½% in December. Inflation was 2.1% in 2025 and the Bank expects inflation to stay close to the 2% target over the projection period, with trade-related cost pressures offset by excess supply. Monetary policy is focused on keeping inflation close to the 2% target while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. Governing Council judges the current policy rate remains appropriate, conditional on the economy evolving broadly in line with the outlook we published today. However, uncertainty is heightened and we are monitoring risks closely. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. The Bank is committed to ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. Information note The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is March 18, 2026. The Bank’s next MPR will be released on April 29, 2026. Read the January 28th, 2026 Monetary Report

Wait! Are You Really Ready to Buy That Home?

By Lisa Manwaring • January 21, 2026
So, you’re thinking about buying a home. You’ve got Pinterest boards full of kitchen inspo, you’re casually scrolling listings at midnight, and your friends are talking about interest rates like they’re the weather. But before you dive headfirst into house hunting— wait . Let’s talk about what “ready” really means when it comes to one of the biggest purchases of your life. Because being ready to own a home is about way more than just having a down payment (although that’s part of it). Here are the real signs you're ready—or not quite yet—to take the plunge into homeownership: 1. You're Financially Stable (and Not Just on Payday) Homeownership isn’t a one-time cost. Sure, there’s the down payment, but don’t forget about: Closing costs Property taxes Maintenance & repairs Insurance Monthly mortgage payments If your budget is stretched thin every month or you don’t have an emergency fund, pressing pause might be smart. Owning a home can be more expensive than renting in the short term—and those unexpected costs will show up. 2. You’ve Got a Steady Income and Job Security Lenders like to see consistency. That doesn’t mean you need to be at the same job forever—but a reliable, documented income (ideally for at least 2 years) goes a long way in qualifying for a mortgage. Thinking of switching jobs or going self-employed? That might affect your eligibility, so timing is everything. 3. You Know Your Credit Score—and You’ve Worked On It Your credit score tells lenders how risky (or trustworthy) you are. A higher score opens more doors (literally), while a lower score may mean higher rates—or a declined application. Pro tip: Pull your credit report before applying. Fix errors, pay down balances, and avoid taking on new debt if you’re planning to buy soon. 4. You’re Ready to Stay Put (At Least for a Bit) Buying a home isn’t just a financial decision—it’s a lifestyle one. If you’re still figuring out your long-term plans, buying might not make sense just yet. Generally, staying in your home for at least 3–5 years helps balance the upfront costs and gives your investment time to grow. If you’re more of a “see where life takes me” person right now, that’s totally fine—renting can offer the flexibility you need. 5. You’re Not Just Buying Because Everyone Else Is This one’s big. You’re not behind. You’re not failing. And buying a home just because it seems like the “adult” thing to do is a fast way to end up with buyer’s remorse. Are you buying because it fits your goals? Because you’re ready to settle, invest in your future, and take care of a space that’s all yours? If the answer is yes—you’re in the right headspace. So… Are You Ready? If you’re nodding along to most of these, amazing! You might be more ready than you think. If you’re realizing there are a few things to get in order, that’s okay too. It’s way better to prepare well than to rush into something you're not ready for. Wherever you’re at, I’d love to help you take the next step—whether that’s getting pre-approved, making a plan, or just asking questions without pressure. Let’s make sure your homebuying journey starts strong. Connect anytime—I’m here when you’re ready.